Truth Social predicts more prediction markets 🔮
Plus: CZ clemency commentary 🔍
This week, we analyze why:
Circle is getting big headlines for testing out a new blockchain
President Trump is getting criticized for pardoning Binance’s CZ
Truth Social is getting into prediction markets
[Truth Social Contract?🔮]
The Truth Social platform, which Donald Trump owns a majority of (through a trust), announced it will begin offering users the ability to access prediction markets through Crypto.com.
What Media Said 🧑💻:
What is this? “Prediction markets are exchanges where people can bet on the outcome of events. The prices of the outcomes reflect people’s forecasts, which can be more accurate than traditional forecasting methods.” Markets cover everything from sports to elections. (Fortune)
Why is Truth Social getting into prediction markets? “The initiative adds to recent efforts by Trump Media to capitalize on its retail following and comes just after trading volume on the leading marketplaces, Polymarket and Kalshi, hit a fresh record. Investors’ voracious appetite for betting on real-world events has prompted firms like CME Group Inc. and Intercontinental Exchange Inc. to look for ways into the business.” (Bloomberg)
Doesn’t the Trump family already have ties to Polymarket and Kalshi? Yes. Donald Trump Jr. is a strategic advisor to Kalshi and a member of Polymarket’s advisory board. “The Truth Predict launch…tees up a scenario in which separate facets of the Trump family’s business empire could effectively compete against one another.” (WIRED)
Why Crypto.com? Because it’s a licensed derivatives exchange. But also because Truth Social and Crypto.com already work together, jointly announcing in March that they would develop exchange-traded funds and in August that they were establishing a treasury company to hoard Cronos (CRO) tokens. Now, CRO can be used to place predictions. (CCN)
PR Perspective 🔎:
The company framed the initiative as “democratizing information,” but it’s also about getting ahead of the curve. It comes at a time when Congress is still negotiating regulations surrounding crypto and prediction markets as part of the market structure bill. No points for predicting where President Trump stands: through his company, he’s giving input in real time.
[Pardon Me?🕵️♂️]
President Trump pardoned Binance founder Changpeng Zhao last week, which set off reactions across the media landscape.
What Media Said 🧑💻:
What did CZ do? In 2023, CZ pleaded guilty to “failing to run an appropriate anti-money laundering program during his tenure as [CEO].” That purportedly allowed terrorists and sanctioned actors to use Binance to move money. He earned four months in prison and Binance paid a $4B penalty, but he kept his controlling stake in the company. (Bloomberg)
Why did he get clemency? The White House says the Biden administration was overzealous in prosecuting CZ and other crypto leaders. But others see a “pay-to-play strategy” that lets white-collar criminals off the hook. (CNN)
Pay-to-play? Zhao, who was released from prison in September 2024, reportedly started pushing for clemency right around the time the Trump family’s World Liberty Financial was trying to create a stablecoin. This May, “Binance agreed to accept a two-billion-dollar investment from MGX — a fund controlled by the U.A.E. government — that was paid for using the Trump stablecoin.” That purchase was a big boon for WLF. Other reporting cites anonymous sources who say “Binance wrote the basic code to power USD1.” (New Yorker)
Are there larger implications? Democrats see it as corrupt, and even some Republicans don’t like the move. It “could complicate an ongoing effort on Capitol Hill to negotiate a major overhaul of crypto regulations, which requires bipartisan support.” (Politico)
PR Perspective 🔎:
President Trump has also pardoned Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht, a cause célèbre for crypto advocates who viewed his sentence as disproportionate. The CZ pardon fits into a broader pattern of criminal justice reform for crypto cases, though critics argue the timing and business connections raise ethical questions. The challenge for the administration will be drawing clear lines between legitimate clemency and conflicts of interest — especially as Congress works on bipartisan crypto legislation that requires trust from both sides of the aisle.
[Casting a Wide Testnet?🌐]
Circle has launched a public testnet for its layer-1 blockchain, Arc, designed to handle financial transactions using stablecoins like USDC.
What Media Said 🧑💻:
What is it? Circle is the creator of the USDC stablecoin, which has a $76B market cap. It’s betting that banks and asset managers, who already move billions of dollars around the globe each year, need a better way to make payments. “It will offer features like U.S. dollar-based fees, sub-second settlement and optional privacy controls.” (CoinDesk)
Who’s signed up? A lot of companies are trying out Arc on the testnet, including asset manager BlackRock, megabank Goldman Sachs, credit card networks Visa and Mastercard, and exchanges Coinbase and Kraken. It also integrates with crypto infrastructure such as the MetaMask wallet and Fireblocks. (Cointelegraph)
Why is this important? Wall Street’s biggest players are on the platform, suggesting they’re open to Circle’s vision. It sees Arc as an “’Economic Operating System’ for the internet” that supports not just everything from foreign exchange to lending via stablecoins. (Decrypt)
PR Perspective 🔎:
A launch is just the beginning, of course. But if the 100+ companies participating like what they see, the next step could be broader adoption of stablecoins in global financial systems and more institutional engagement with enterprise-grade blockchain infrastructure.
[Industry Note 📰]
Yesterday, Blockworks announced it is shutting down its news division to pivot towards data and software products. The decision resulted in layoffs across its journalism team.
The Blockworks editorial team has consistently delivered high-quality reporting that has elevated crypto journalism, and their contributions to the industry have been substantial. We wish all affected the best as they pursue their next opportunities — the industry will be better for wherever they land.
Our industry needs crypto trade media — technical reporting of this industry is necessary to make sense of the evolving decentralised financial system that is increasingly dominating global finance. While traditional media outlets are covering crypto more, there’s still an information gap in crypto-native reporting. The depth and breadth of topics covered by crypto-native outlets cannot be replicated by mainstream media.
We’re hopeful that quality journalism will continue to find support in this evolving landscape.
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The usual disclaimer: This newsletter collates the main themes and headlines of the week in DeFi/crypto/metaverse/Web3/NFT land and tries to provide unbiased context. It’s aimed at anyone who wants to keep an eye on the space. It’s put together by a team at YAP and doesn’t contain any promotion of our clients (if one is mentioned, we’ll flag that).
The team: Founder Samantha Yap and consulting editor Jeff Benson, Andrew Wickerson, Nathalie Larrea, Meghna Dembla, Samvidha Sharma, William Knight, Taylor Handler, Abby Notarnicola, Zeke Harker, TJ Thomas, and Shajar Qureshi. Your feedback is, as always, welcome. Ping us at thecontext@yapglobal.com. Old newsletters can be found here.
This newsletter is prepared by YAP Global, an international PR Consultancy focusing on helping cryptocurrency, Decentralised Finance (DeFi) and brands through impactful storytelling. Find out more about us here.